World Bank Connections Notes – Transport, Energy, Internet

2017 Connections Notes

Why Safety Matters for Sustainable Mobility

Soames Job (The World Bank) and Hilda Gomez (CAF)

As one of the four global goals framing sustainable mobility in the Global Mobility Report (GMR), universal access in urban areas is the ability for people to reach the destinations necessary to lead productive and fulfilling lives. But transport infrastructure and services are rarely distributed equitably, and ensuring equity of access is of paramount importance. By 2050, the world’s urban population is expected to grow by 2.5 billion people, reaching 66 percent of the total global population. Most urban growth is projected to take place in developing countries in Africa and Asia. As economic activity continues to shift from mature economies toward these emerging markets, the number of daily trips made by people in urban areas could increase by 50 percent between 2005 and 2025. The GMR positioned access to economic and social opportunities for everyone as a key goal for achieving sustainable mobility, regardless of income, gender, age, disability status, and geographical location. The Global Tracking Framework (GTF) proposes indicators to measure progress toward that goal. This work supports Sustainable Development Goals 9 and 11 and the Habitat III New Urban Agenda. Universal Access in Urban Areas in the Global Agenda Universal access in urban areas is embodied in two targets of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG): 9.1 and 11.2. The first aims to develop infrastructure to support economic development and human well-being, and the second to provide sustainable transport systems for all, with a focus on public transport. Given this focus, target 11.2 is specifically relevant for urban areas and hence for universal urban access. In addition to the SDGs, the Habitat III New Urban Agenda underlines the need for accessible cities, and focuses on equal access to all services, including transport. It stresses “age and gender-responsive planning and investment for sustainable, safe, and accessible urban mobility for all”, and supports a focus on the needs of marginalized groups. Methodological challenges in measuring universal urban access While there is no widely agreed upon method of measuring universal access, there is a general agreement that sustainable transport should leave no one behind. Data that measure access to transport infrastructure and services for urban areas are not readily available on a global scale. The data that do exist suggest that the accessibility gap is huge, and potentially growing, making it urgent for urban access to be measured more consistently and comprehensively in cities and countries around the world. Measuring access by income level, gender, age, disability status, and location adds further complexity to the task. Several factors currently inhibit the measurement of universal access via sustainable transport: the absence of a universally agreed upon definition; the lack of a shared methodology; and the need to identify the multiple sub-groups to be considered. There is also a scarcity of data on the demographics of existing transport users and the needs of vulnerable groups; the locations of residences, jobs, and markets; and road and transit networks, transit schedules, and speeds. The indicators proposed in the GTF complement those in the SDG goals. The principal SDG indicator for universal access in urban areas is indicator 11.2.1: Proportion of population that has convenient access to public transport, by age, sex, and persons with disabilities. However, this is not clearly defined. The current GTF proposal for a basic indicator (those using proxies that require limited data already collected on a regular basis) is to measure “percentage of the population within 500m of a frequent public transport stop or station.” The proposed access indicators include: • Basic: • Number of public transport journeys by mode of transport per person • Vehicle-km public transport per person • Intermediate: • Average percent of income spent on transport per resident (affordability) • Perceptions of safety, security, comfort, & user information • Advanced: • Percent of vehicles & stations per network with step-free access • Number of People within 30 minutes of a service (e.g. hospital, school, etc.) by public transport, walking, and cycling Trends in urban access With people in developed countries moving to cities, the previous trend of increasing motorization appears to have stopped. On the other hand, in cities in developing countries—particularly those in emerging economies—motorization rates have grown significantly since 1995. With most of the urban growth for the coming decades projected to take place in developing countries, the trend is worrying. While car and motorized two-wheeler ownership theoretically improves access for individuals, this comes with increased external costs which are spread across the entire urban population and beyond. While public transport supply overall nearly doubled during the period 1995–2012 in developing country cities, the growth in urban populations there has outpaced these developments. As a result, the overall level of public transport supply per capita decreased over the same period. In all regions, the supply of rapid transit has been increasing relative to the urban population, particularly since 2000. By far the highest ratio is found in Europe, mostly concentrated in the largest cities. Developed countries have recently experienced a moderate growth in the use of public transport per capita. And while cities in developing countries have experienced a significant growth in use, the use per capita is actually decreasing as urban populations grow. Scale of the challenge If the trends observed in the last decade of the 20th century prevail, urban areas in emerging economies could see a shift away from walking and cycling to private motorized vehicles, and public transport could see an erosion of its market share in all world regions. But doubling the market share of public transport worldwide while keeping stable the share of walking and cycling would make it possible to decouple the growth of mobility in urban areas from the growth of its societal and environmental costs. Policies will need to be put in place to reverse the trends seen in developing countries, to avoid the problems that are already present in car-dependent cities in developed countries.

In one projection, energy related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions are expected to grow by 40 percent between 2013 and 2040.1 Air pollution—both ambient (outdoor) and household (indoor)—is the biggest single environmental risk to health; ambient air pollution alone kills about three million people each year. In addition, evidence from several countries suggests that traffic noise has the second biggest environmental impact on health. Trends in green mobility Global transport emissions grew at an average annual rate of 2 percent from 1990–2012, and transport remains among the fastest growing sectors of CO2 emissions from fuel combustion. Road-based transport—passenger and freight transport—is responsible for more than 80 percent of the sector’s CO2 emissions. Optimizing the contributions of the transport sector will be essential to achieving the mitigations target. Some key trends include: • In 2012, transport was the largest energy consuming sector in 40 percent of countries worldwide, and the second largest in most of the remaining countries. • Countries with low transport emissions per capita are in general those with the highest growth rates. • Countries with gasoline prices above US$1/liter from 2000 to 2012 show clear reductions in transport emissions growth; as opposed to those that have kept gasoline prices artificially low due to fuel subsidies. Many countries are already taking climate change mitigation seriously through transport system improvements. 75 percent of NDCs explicitly identify the transport sector as a mitigation source, and more than 63 percent propose transport-sector-specific mitigation measures.3 However, climate action in the transport sector still has a long way to go. On an economy-wide scale, mitigation measures proposed in NDCs are expected to fall well short of a 2-degree Celsius scenario, let alone 1.5-degree scenario.4

Increased focus on safe access to active transport modes, including walking and cycling, supported by public transport and the decarbonization of fuels and vehicles, will help bridge that gap. In low-and middle-income countries, 98 percent of cities do not meet WHO air quality guidelines, compared with 56 percent of cities in high-income countries. As a result, only 10 percent of people globally live in cities that comply with WHO air quality guidelines.5 Scale of the challenge The targets set for the Green Mobility objective, especially on climate change mitigation, call for nothing short of transformative change for mobility. Achieving these targets requires that the transport sector achieve net decarbonization of transport to contribute to a net-zero-emission economy. Such a transformation would also produce significant co-benefits for human health and well-being through the reduction of transport-related pollution. The transformation of the transport sector, in support of climate action and other environmental goals, needs to be largely completed by 2050 or shortly thereafter, with all modes of transport—including road, rail, air, and waterborne transport, for both people and goods—achieving global systemic change. This transformation will involve new consumption patterns and behavioral changes, major technological innovations, the emergence of new mobility ecosystems, and the creation of new business models. The required scale and urgency of this change calls for unprecedented immediate and coordinated mobilization of all transport sector players—including public policy makers and private sector interests —and the full participation of civil society. The transport sector cannot realize such ambitious targets in isolation, and will require cooperation with other sectors—including energy, health, and urban development. Only through concerted action will we be able to achieve sustainable mobility for all.

References: 3 Based on analysis by SLoCaT Partnership. In addition, 9 percent of NDCs include a transport sector emission reduction target, and 12 percent of NDCs include assessments of country-level transport mitigation potential. 4 SLoCaT Partnership 2016. Nationally-Determined Contributions (NDCs) Offer Opportunities for Ambitious Action on Transport and Climate Change. 5 The statistics are based on data for cities with more than 100 000 inhabitants. Air quality guideline comes from WHO. Source: WHO Ambient air pollution: A global assessment of exposure and burden of disease.

How to measure efficiency of the transport system

We need to measure aspects such as multimodality, institutional barriers to border crossings, logistics performance, and the efficient use of resources, to understand whether the efficiency of a transport system improves over time. The GMR proposed several indicators to measure those aspects:

• Connectivity index. This index captures the cost, time, and reliability of transport networks for domestic, regional, and global connectivity, and considers the importance of multimodality. A liner shipping connectivity or air connectivity index can support the connectivity index. Other indicators that need to be developed include freight connectivity. A proxy indicator for network connectivity could be accession to the United Nations infrastructure agreements.

• Institutional and Regulatory Barriers. To measure the facility of border crossing and logistics performance, the report proposes indicators such as accession to the United Nations border crossing facilitation conventions and the logistics performance index.

• Energy Consumption. For resource efficiency, the report proposes an indicator on the amount of energy consumed for transport per unit of GDP.

• Technology Use of Transport. As technology plays a more and more important role in increasing the efficiency of the transport system, the report proposes a measure of the use of electronic platforms for facilitating goods transit and for reducing backhauls.

Recent trends in transport system efficiency

Poor regulatory performance, lack of harmonized regulations, and complicated procedures at borders directly impact the rate at which goods can be transported between countries. These inefficiencies, along with deficient network connectivity, result in delays in the transport of traded goods both within and across countries, particularly in developing countries. And data show that low- and middle-income countries have lower costs in general when they trade goods with high-income countries— which have more efficient trade regimes—rather than among themselves.(UNCTAD (2015), Freight Rates and Maritime Transport Costs  Also World Bank (2013), Developing Countries Face Higher Trade Costs)

Today, transport system efficiency varies widely around the world, according to the average logistic performance index. Developed countries with strong and harmonized transport regulations—which are open to competition, take the lead in technology development, and are parties  to a number of the United Nations transport agreements and conventions— have transport systems that support trade and economic growth.
Developed countries embrace technology and computerization for transport and mobility more easily, using passenger information systems, integrated electronic ticketing systems, real-traffic management centres, vehicles with automated control systems, and freight transport technologies.

Conversely, developing countries—often with weak and incomplete regulations, and little cross-border coordination or cooperation—lag behind. And the gap between countries has been widening in recent years,
with the difference in logistical efficiency translating into differing costs for transport, and hindering trade integration by developing countries. Developing countries are now improving the fuel economy of vehicles at a higher rate than developed countries. But because this rate has only recently surpassed the improvement rate of developed countries, it will take developing countries a few more years to reach similar average absolute levels of vehicle fuel economy.

Developing countries also consume less energy in transport relative to their GDPs. However, this probably stems from differences in economic development, trade openness, and mobility patterns. As their economies
develop, this energy consumption could increase. The scale of the challenge Because the demand for transport will increase significantly in coming years, it will be important, particularly for developing countries, to improve the efficiency of their transport systems at every level—from subnational to global.

To improve, countries should have an appropriate tracking framework at hand that will allow them to understand which transport policies they need to introduce or improve, and to evaluate whether these polices bring the anticipated results. The GMR offers such framework. It will be also more important than ever that countries accede to and implement—if they have not already done so—the United Nations transport conventions
and other global and regional transport and trade agreements, and to put in place the norms and standards for effective international transit and trade facilitation systems.

Tracking Sustainable Mobility Muneeza Alam (World Bank) and Julie Powell (UN DESA)

2015, the world embraced the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) for 2030, and agreed on a framework of targets and indicators for tracking progress across multiple economic sectors. Because of the cross-cutting nature of the transport sector, several transport-related targets and indicators are reflected in the SDGs. But in contrast to the health, education, water, and energy sectors, there is no single SDG dedicated exclusively to transport. The sector is also scant in direct targets, indicators, and direct data collection. To address this, the Sustainable Mobility for All (SuM4All) initiative—a multi-stakeholder partnership
acting collectively to help transform the transport sector—has developed a Global Tracking Framework (GTF) for transport, complementing the targets and indicators in the SDGs. This Global Tracking Framework is featured in the Global Mobility Report which provides the first-ever assessment of all modes of transport across the globe. The framework will provide crucial information and tools to inform transport policy
and investment decisions, and provide a baseline for measuring progress toward sustainable mobility.  As a proxy for SDG target 11.2, the Inter-agency and Expert Group on SDG Indicators uses the “proportion of population that has convenient access to public transport…” (SDG indicator 11.2.1). The GTF includes this tier II SDG indicator, and aims to assist the custodian agency with data collection efforts. The GTF complements this indicator with “the percentage of jobs that are accessible within 60 minutes by public transport,” to track not only access to public transport but also access to opportunities through public transport.

Achieving Sustainable Mobility

Javier Morales Sarriera (World Bank) and Lewis Fulton (University of California, Davis)

In its crucial role, transport fosters development as it connects people to goods, services, social, and economic opportunities. But today’s data shows social exclusion linked to accessibility gaps in transport services—in rural areas, women, and the elderly—, high costs to society from poorly integrated transport systems, road fatalities, traffic congestion, air pollution, and environmental degradation. The question for global and country transport decision-makers is how to meet the mobility needs of people and goods now, while preserving future generations? The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) identify an important and rich array of characteristics that define a sustainable world. Those characteristics, along with those identified in the economic literature, can be used to frame “sustainable mobility” around four global goals, which should address more than access. For mobility to be sustainable, it should have four attributes—equitable, efficient, safe, and green. In this way, mobility can benefit both present and future generations. The basic principles A supply and demand conceptual framework can be used to capture the dynamics of a typical market for transport and mobility. Left to its own devices, this market tends to over- or under-provide, or over- or under-use the various modes of transport infrastructure and services. An example of this is the over-use of roads by private automobiles and motorized two-wheelers to the detriment of public transport systems and active modes—leading to congestion, excessive fossil fuel use, and air pollution. At the heart of these sub-optimal outcomes are individual decisions to use and provide transport infrastructure and services that do not take into account other users—both in the present and in the future. But what may be ideal for an individual in the short term may not necessarily be optimal for other individuals—either today or tomorrow. As a result, society is mobile, but at the expense of present and future generations. Sustainability conditions How can we achieve mobility that benefits present and future generations? Two approaches point us in the same direction. UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon’s High Level Advisory Group on Sustainable Transport identifies

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