Finnish modelling of a 100% renewable energy world on an hourly basis

As prices for renewables keep falling, global energy transition will happen faster than many think. To accelerate the process, we need innovative political measures.  

“The time is ripe. We need a strong political and social movement to accelerate a global transition to 100% renewable energy.” — Hans-Josef Fell, President of Energy Watch Group and Former member of the German Parliament

“More for less” was the story of renewable energy in 2016, according to the latest REN21 report. Although globally new investments in renewables dropped by 23%, a record of 161 GW of new renewable power capacity worldwide was installed.

As costs of solar and wind power keep falling, a global transition to 100% renewable energy is a reality which is unfolding much faster than sceptics think. Already today, wind and solar are the cheapest sources of electricity, and storage technology will soon follow. Disruptive technology improvements in the renewable energy sector as well as the search for real solutions to climate change, air pollution, poverty and refugee crises will accelerate the process.

Why do we need a full transition to 100% renewable energy?

In many regions across the world, living conditions have long been destroyed. This is the case in the heavily radiation contaminated areas Chernobyl and Fukushima; in crude oil regions of Syria, Iraq and Sudan where conflict over raw materials has escalated into war, in some South Pacific islands which are under threat of flooding due to the rising sea level, and in cities with air pollution.

Images from Chernobyl 

A key aspect of the Paris Agreement is transition to an emission-free global economy. The Paris Agreement targets can be achieved only if we switch to a full-scale renewable energy supply by 2030 at the latest.

How can a full-scale transition to renewable energy be achieved?

All types of renewable energy sources and storage technology need to be used. Solar and wind energy will deliver the largest input. During the fluctuations hydropower, geothermal, bioenergy and tidal energy will help to cover the energy demand.

Pump storage systems, for instance in disused mines, batteries in all diverse forms, power to gas and power to liquid as well as flywheel generators will compensate for solar and wind energy fluctuations. Batteries will also deliver the necessary system services previously provided by old coal and nuclear power plants.

Retrofitting and constructing power grids will also play an important role. Intelligent smart grid systems are beneficial not only for decentralised distribution networks, but also for offsetting winter periods of dark days with no wind — a phenomenon known as “Dunkelflaute” in German — by means of large cross-regional transmission lines. One thing is clear: decentralised deployment with at least 80% energy from the region for the region holds the key to 100% renewable energy.

Energy demand in the heat/cooling, transport, agriculture, construction, industrial production, and desalination sectors will be covered by electricity through e-mobility, heat pump systems, power to fuel solutions, as well as a raw material base for crude oil replacement in synthetic chemistry.

In global air traffic or overseas shipping, synthetic fuel generated by solar, wind and sustainable biofuels will help to accelerate the transition. Biofuel crops such as jatropha, rapeseed and sunflowers should be planted on degraded lands, which will exclude the risk of deforestation and will create carbon sinks. Moreover, sustainably grown plant-based oil can help to replace natural gas and crude oil in organic chemistry.

First ever modelling of a 100% renewable energy world on an hourly basis

Critics of energy transition often use solar and wind fluctuations as their major argument. Until now, there was a lack of a global modelling, which would show the amount of renewable energy required on an hourly basis across all regions of the world — a Herculean task even for modern supercomputers and data collectors.

In previous years, such modelling has been the focus of a research team led by Professor Christian Breyer at the Finnish Lappeenranta University of Technology. Breyer’s research findings in India, Northeast Asia, MENA, South America and Eurasia are revealing. Firstly, they prove that 100% renewables can provide full energy supply at any hour year-round. Secondly, they show that such energy system is the most cost-efficient. Only five to seven euro cents per kWh would suffice to finance investment in energy generation, storage and distribution. No other kind of energy supply is cheaper than that.

The Energy Watch Group together with the Lappeenranta University of Technology is currently working on a study “Global full energy supply with renewable energy”. It will analyse a global 100% renewable energy system on an hourly resolution for one reference year and present results on electricity, heating, mobility, desalination and industrial energy demand. In addition, the study will look closer into carbon sink potential of plant-based oil production on degraded lands. The first study results on electricity are expected in November this year.

Measures to accelerate the transition to 100% renewable energy

The global movement for 100% renewable energy has been rapidly growing.

City of Vancouver, Canada 

On a global scale, hundreds of cities including Vancouver, San Francisco, Munich, Frankfurt, Barcelona, Geneva, Doha and Sydney as well as entire nations such as Sweden, Denmark and Iceland have set the bold goal of 100% renewable energy.

City of Barcelona, Spain 

Costa Rica, Uruguay and Nicaragua have already achieved this goal in the electricity sector or are about to achieve it.

Costa Rica 

At the Marrakesh Climate Conference in 2016, the group of 48 developing countries most vulnerable to climate changes committed to transition to 100% renewable energy by 2050.


The public support for a transition to renewable energy and a strong green entrepreneurship are decisive driving forces. But, we also need new innovative political measures to encourage investments in network integration and sector integration. One political measure can deliver precisely this: combined cycle renewable power plant remuneration.  Technology for such energy system is available today and can be implemented in physical or virtual combined cycle-power plants. Investments from an intelligent mix of combined renewable energy facilities can meet the necessary requirement for full energy supply at all times. To this end, I suggest a rate of remuneration for combined cycle renewable power plants running on 100% renewable energy, which will balance the fluctuations within their local supply area and will reduce the responsibility of grid operators.

Advantages of combined cycle renewable power plant remuneration

  • A transition to 100% renewable energy in such regional networks is cheaper than on the national level. Regionally organised energy systems significantly reduce the need for power grid expansion and network services.
  • Conventional power plants and balancing capacity will not be needed anymore.
  • Local companies and citizen communities will join the business, strengthen the local economy and create new local jobs.
  • As power to heat is indispensable for combined cycle renewable power plants, the use of renewable energy will also advance in heating and transport sectors.
  • Power supply security and flexibility will increase significantly.

The time is ripe. We need a strong political and social movement to accelerate a global transition to 100% renewable energy. Otherwise, more and more regions around the world will fall victim to wars fought for the last fossil fuel reserves.

20 million climate change and war refugees are reason enough to overcome the remaining obstacles and to complete the global transition to 100% renewable energy by 2030 at the latest.

Hans-Josef Fell is the President of Energy Watch Group, an independent, non-profit global network of scientists and parliamentarians, which commissions research, independent studies and analyses on global energy developments. Hans-Josef Fell was a member of the German parliament from 1998 to 2013 in the Alliance 90/the Greens group. He is the co-author of the German Renewable Energy Sources Act 2000.