September 28th, 2017 by James Ayre on Clean Technica
That interview — with the California Air Resources Board’s head, Mary Nichols — is fairly ambiguous, so those in the state may not want to hold their breath too long. The possibility does seem to be there, though, so perhaps something will happen before too long.
Speaking about conversations with California Governor Jerry Brown, Nichols stated: “I’ve gotten messages from the governor asking, ‘Why haven’t we done something already?’ The governor has certainly indicated an interest in why China can do this and not California.”
While California is just a single US state, it does still represent one of the largest auto markets in the world — comprising over 2 million new passenger vehicle registrations in 2016, not an insubstantial number. If a ban (of whatever sort) was to go into effect in California, it would certainly get the attention of the major auto manufacturers and force major changes.
Speaking about the need for action of some kind, if the state’s climate change goals are to be achieved, Nichols stated that a rapid switch to electric vehicles is mandatory. “To reach the ambitious levels of reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, we have to pretty much replace all combustion with some form of renewable energy by 2040 or 2050. We’re looking at that as a method of moving this discussion forward.”
Nichols noted that California, as a US state, doesn’t have a completely free hand as regards the actions it can take to achieve this goal.
“We certainly wouldn’t expect to get a waiver for that from EPA,” Nichols stated. “I think we would be looking at using some of our other authorities to get to that result.”
Speaking about timelines, she noted: “There are people who believe, including who work for me, that you could stop all sales of new internal-combustion cars by 2030. Some people say 2035, some people say 2040. It’s awfully hard to predict any of that with precision, but it doesn’t appear to be out of the question.”
On that note, I’ll remind those reading this that the UK and France are both aiming for the sale of internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to be ended by 2040. Also noteworthy is that the chairman of the China-based firm BYD expects all new car sales in China to be of electrified models by 2030 (this would include hybrids, seemingly).
The internal combustion engine’s days may be numbered in California, where officials are mulling whether a ban on sales of polluting autos is needed to achieve long-term targets for cleaner air.
Embracing such a policy would send shockwaves through the global car industry due to the heft of California’s auto market. More than 2 million new passenger vehicles were registered in the state last year, topping France, Italy or Spain. If a ban were implemented, automakers from General Motors Co. to Toyota Motor Corp. would be under new pressure to make electric vehicles the standard for personal transportation in the most populous U.S. state, casting fresh doubts on the future of gasoline- and diesel-powered autos elsewhere.
The Association of Global Automakers said consumers must be able to afford the cleaner cars that California says are needed to meet its climate goals. The trade association represents Toyota, Honda Motor Co. and other overseas carmakers in the U.S.
“We have been working with California on intelligent, market-based approaches to emissions reductions beyond 2025, and we hope that this doesn’t signal an abandonment of that position,” Global Automakers Chief Executive Officer John Bozzella said in a statement.
California has set a goal to cut carbon dioxide emissions by 80 percent from 1990 levels by 2050. Rising emissions from on-road transportation has undercut the state’s efforts to reduce pollution, according to Next 10, San Francisco-based non-profit.
“To reach the ambitious levels of reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, we have to pretty much replace all combustion with some form of renewable energy by 2040 or 2050,” Nichols said. “We’re looking at that as a method of moving this discussion forward.”
California has the authority to write its own pollution rules, which dates back to the 1970 Clean Air Act. Those rules are underpinned by waivers granted by the Environmental Protection Agency.
Nichols said the state would likely take a different legal route to enable a possible ban rather than use an EPA waiver, since the Trump administration would be unlikely to approve one. For example, California could use vehicle registration rules or control the vehicles that can access state highways, she said.
“We certainly wouldn’t expect to get a waiver for that from EPA,” Nichols said. “I think we would be looking at using some of our other authorities to get to that result.”
China will likely order an end to sales of all polluting vehicles by 2030, the chairman of electric-carmaker BYD Co. said Thursday. France and the U.K. have announced 2040 as their end date for sales of fossil fuel-powered cars.
A ban for California could also still be decades away from implementation, and just how far out remains to be seen, Nichols said.
“There are people who believe, including who work for me, that you could stop all sales of new internal-combustion cars by 2030. Some people say 2035, some people say 2040,” she said. “It’s awfully hard to predict any of that with precision, but it doesn’t appear to be out of the question.”