According to new research by Cornell natural gas production is responsible for two-thirds of the sizeable rise in global methane emissions between 2008 and 2014 – with shale gas produced by fracking accounting for more than half of this increase. Multiple stages of the fracking process, in which shale rock is fractured to release trapped oil or gas, result in gas being deliberately vented or flared. Methane heats the planet 86 times more intensely than CO₂ over a 20-year period, meaning that it accounts for about a quarter of human-caused global heating we’re experiencing today.
The level of methane in the atmosphere has risen dramatically in the last decade – and climate scientists are worried. Although there’s still roughly 60 times less of it floating around than carbon dioxide, the gas heats the planet 86 times more intensely than CO₂ over a 20-year period, meaning that it accounts for about a quarter of human-caused global heating we’re experiencing today. And because it’s so potent in the short-term, fluctuations in its levels can have large and rapid impacts on how much global temperature rises in the next few decades.
The trouble is, the research community hasn’t been able to work out conclusively what’s most to blame for the increase. Some previous work has suggested that biological sources such as tropical wetlands, rice cultivation, or animal agriculture were the main culprits. But according to new research, chemical fingerprints point to a different source – natural gas.
The Cornell University study indicates that natural gas production is responsible for two-thirds of the sizeable rise in global methane emissions between 2008 and 2014 – with shale gas produced by fracking accounting for more than half of this increase.
So how could so much be escaping? Multiple stages of the fracking process, in which shale rock is fractured to release trapped oil or gas, result in gas being deliberately vented or flared. In the USA, during commercial extraction, gas not suitable for consumption may be vented or flared. Gas is similarly vented to regulate pressure during compression and storage. Wells and pipelines are also emptied whenever they need routine testing or maintenance, so that works can be performed without risk of explosion.
In addition to these deliberate and necessary processes, a proportion of methane emissions from fracking is accidentally released, due to leaks and other more infrequent but more serious incidents. For example, in Argentina’s Vaca Muerta, one of the largest shale reserves in the world, there were more than two leaks or spills a day on average in 2018. The borehole can also leak after the well is decommissioned.
Emissions like these aren’t restricted to fracked gas. “Conventional” oil and gas fields – those in which the oil and gas is more readily accessible – also have pressure venting requirements and are susceptible to leaks and occasionally even blowouts.
So how do you tell one source of methane from another? The key is that methane gas from shale has a different chemical signature to conventionally extracted gas.
The study first determined the typical chemical composition of methane from fracking, conventional gas extraction, and natural sources. Then, analyzing the the overall chemical composition of methane in the atmosphere, it calculated a contribution to each source based on the proportion each different signature accounted for.
Not just fracking
It’s worth exercising some caution with regards to the severity of fracking’s contribution to methane emissions though, as there is likely to be some overlap between the chemical compositions of shale and conventional gas. Their signatures are somewhat distinct because shale gas is typically less mobile than the gas in a conventional oil and gas field – but rock formations can be highly variable and complex, and other factors can influence the chemical composition too.
Although methane is invisible to the naked eye, the ‘blowdown’ can be seen as the methane rapidly cools water vapour in the air.
Nevertheless, while the relative contributions of conventional and fracked gas may be blurry, the research still indicates that natural gas production is the main culprit for the weight of 5m elephants’ worth of methane being added to the atmosphere each year. The current study backs up work published by NASA in early 2018 – that two-thirds of the rise in atmospheric methane is down to fossil fuels.
Nobody can get away from the fact that natural gas extraction releases fugitive methane, not to mention the CO₂ produced when successfully captured gas is burnt. There are now serious question marks over the suitability of natural gas as a less polluting bridge fuel on the journey from coal and oil towards renewable energy. Does it still make sense to invest in new gas infrastructure when existing fossil fuel reserves already place the UN’s target of limiting warming to 1.5℃ under threat?
At the very least, if natural gas continues to be developed, we need more smart monitoring systems streaming data in real time to prevent all but necessary emissions. The majority of fugitive methane emissions come from a minority of locations and activities – so-called super-emitters, whose emissions spikes are largely avoidable.
In England, for example, methane was recently released into the atmosphere merely as a result of failing to burn the methane produced during a well test. It is the duty of countries who pursue this path to make sure that not a jot more methane is emitted than required. Sadly, this duty is not yet being fulfilled.
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Natural gas (also called fossil gas) is a hydrocarbon gas mixture consisting of almost 100% methane, a powerful short-lived climate pollutant. Leaks can occur at many places along the natural gas supply chain, including poorly maintained pipes, seals and storage tanks, and even some equipment that emits gas by design, including outmoded pneumatic devices.
Methane has a bigger impact on climate change in the near-term which means that targeting it is an important tool in fighting a warming planet. Furthermore, reducing it would have positive effects on human health and crop yields. Recent important findings showed 2 percent of natural gas sites were responsible for 20 percent of emissions— which could prove fruitful when targeting intervention. (Climate and Clean Air Coalition’s (CCAC) Oil and Gas Methane Science Studies, a series of research endeavours measuring methane emissions from the oil and gas sector.)
Globally, increased methane emissions are responsible for half of the observed rise in ozone levels. With nine out of ten people in the world breathing polluted air––and around 7 million dying from it annually––air pollution is the world’s greatest health threat, eclipsing scourges like HIV/AIDS, malaria and tuberculosis, having an equivalent effect as smoking.
Methane leaks occur at various stages of the supply chain, including when it is extracted, processed, and transported. Often, major leaks are due to faulty maintenance which can, in some cases, be relatively easily addressed if the source is identified—such as a loose screw or a valve. Preventing gas leakage during transmission and distribution could reduce emissions from coal mining and the oil and gas sector by over 65 percent. There is increasing evidence that previous estimates of methane emissions from the oil and gas industry have been underestimated. One study recently published in Nature shows that it could be as much as by 25-40 percent. Research was published by a team of Dutch scientists last year on how accidents in the oil and gas sector can release large amounts of methane in short periods of time. In one natural gas well in Ohio in the United States in February 2018, a single blowout released enough methane to rival a significant percentage of the man-made emissions of several European countries over an entire year.
Social Cost of Methane
Although it is tempting to consider methane as merely a greenhouse gas equivalent, its dynamics in the carbon cycle are so different that it should be considered and managed separately. Given the nature of the climate emergency, methane is a particularly bad actor as it is much more potent than CO2. This also implies that methane remediation is an effective way to buy time, which is urgently needed.
Action: Xcel should support a Colorado-wide inquiry into developing a social cost of methane.
It is quite possible that Xcel’s investments in natural gas will look considerably different when using a social cost of methane. Xcel could advocate for greater efforts in leak detection and repair in existing gas fields to lower its upstream methane impact. Xcel could also potentially buy itself time by advocating for methane capture at landfills or agriculture as being more socially cost-effective than reducing natural gas generation. Either way, more data is needed.
Health Effects:
Six US states and five Canadian provinces have declared moratoriums on fracking natural gas based on health effects, not to mention European countries such as Bulgaria, France, Germany, Ireland, the Netherlands, Northern Ireland, Scotland, England, and Wales. Uruguay has also adopted a moratorium.
Compendium of Scientific, Medical, and Media Findings Demonstrating Risks and Harms of Fracking (Unconventional Gas and Oil Extraction) Sixth Edition, June 19, 2019 is a fully referenced compilation of evidence outlining the risks and harms of fracking. In physicians review of the data, seventeen compelling themes emerged; these serve as the organizational structure of the Compendium. Readers will notice the ongoing upsurge in reported problems and health impacts, making each section top-heavy with recent data. The Compendium is organized to be accessible to public officials, researchers, journalists, and the public. It compiles findings from three sources: articles from peer-reviewed medical or scientific journals; investigative reports by journalists; and reports from, or commissioned by, government agencies. Peer-reviewed articles were identified through databases such as PubMed and Web of Science, and from within the PSE Healthy Energy database. In addition, the Compendium is complemented by a fully searchable, near-exhaustive citation database of peer-reviewed journal articles pertaining to shale gas and oil extraction, the Repository for Oil and Gas Energy Research, that was developed by PSE Healthy Energy and which is housed on its website (https://www.psehealthyenergy.org/our-work/shale-gas-research-library/).
Concerned Health Professionals of New York (CHPNY) is an online resource center for the public, press, elected officials and other health professionals to access the documentation of the serious health risks posed to New Yorkers by hydraulic fracturing. In November 2016 CHPNY published the 4th edition of the Compendium of the Scientific, Medical and Media Findings Demonstrating Risks and Harms of Fracking.
Canadian Physicians’ report, Fractures in the Bridge: Unconventional (Fracked) Natural Gas, Climate Change and Human Health (2020), examines environmental and health hazards associated with fracking. “Many adverse health effects have been identified in studies directed at fracking operations, but the strongest evidence is for negative impacts on pregnancy and birth outcomes and the aggravation of asthma,” Notebaert added. “The evidence for low birth weight is quite strong, which is disturbing, as low birth weight is an indicator for a number of serious health impacts, including developmental deficits in children and increased rates of cardiovascular disease in later life. There is also reason to believe that fracking increases the risk of leukemia among children whose mothers are exposed during pregnancy.”
Concerned Health Professionals of New York (CHPNY) is an online resource center for the public, press, elected officials and other health professionals to access the documentation of the serious health risks posed to New Yorkers by hydraulic fracturing. In November 2016 CHPNY published the 4th edition of the Compendium of the Scientific, Medical and Media Findings Demonstrating Risks and Harms of Fracking.
Physicians for Social Responsibility issued “Climate and Health Risks of Liquified Natural Gas” in Nov. 2019. The report examines the entire life cycle of LNG and documents such threats as contamination arising from the extraction process; leaks of methane and hazardous air toxics from wells and pipelines; pollution resulting from the liquefaction process itself, and risks of fire and explosion. The white paper also voices concern for environmental justice. Read the full report here.
Correcting Accounting for Methane (Wes Wilson)
A 2018 study in the journal Science, puts the rate of methane emissions from domestic oil and gas operations at 2.3 percent of total production per year, which is 60 percent higher than the current estimate from the Environmental Protection Agency. That might seem like a small fraction of the total, but it represents an estimated 13 million metric tons lost each year, or enough natural gas to fuel 10 million homes.
methane, the main component of natural gas, can warm the planet more than 80 times as much as the same amount of carbon dioxide over a 20-year period if it escapes into the atmosphere before being burned. A recent study found that natural gas power plants could actually be worse for climate change than coal plants if their leakage rate rose above 4 percent. Much of the leakage is fixable at relatively low cost, said Steven Hamburg, chief scientist of the Environmental Defense Fund and an author of the paper. He cited estimates from the International Energy Agency that industry could reduce its methane emissions by 75 percent and that two-thirds of those reductions would pay for themselves because of the value of the saved gas.. The lost methane is worth an estimated $2 billion a year. Some oil and gas firms already use infrared cameras to detect methane leaks and are exploring the use of drones and satellites for the task as well. The main reason that total methane leakage is so much higher than the E.P.A. estimate, the report says, is the degree to which large leaks — so-called super-emitters — contribute to the problem. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/21/climate/methane-leaks.html
To be consistent with EPA’s reporting, the state and other states multiply the amount of methane the oil industry reports it leaks times 25 to get CO2 equivalency- CO2e. The methane 100-year Global Warming Potential of 25 comes from IPCC 1995 Assessment, 25 year old info.
The IPCC’s 2013 5th assessment says there “is no scientific basis to use the 100-year GWP for methane” because methane has an atmospheric lifetime of just 12 years. The 5th assessment reports 20-year CH4 GWP of 86 and a 10-year GWP at 125 with feed back. These numbers are measured in watts per square meter of excess heat retained compared to CO2.
Switching to these 20 and 10-year metrics increases the inventories of GHG CO2e emissions from O&G by 3 to 6 times. This gives focus to the urgency of meeting the 1261 goals by stopping fracking and switching off fossils.
In summer 2019, CDPHE initially resisted using anything other than EPA’s suggested 25 over 100 years because “that would confuse the public “. John Putnam however is poised to include in the inventory the methane GWP of 86 over 20 years. Several members of the AQCC will support including GWP of 86 over 20 years.
The AQCC could include the more alarming and more relevant 10- year GWP of methane of 125 with feedback. And with state monitoring methane by air and 24/7 grd instruments, the inventory would be based on actual releases which are possibly 2-3 times more than industry self reporting.
See: Addressing CO’s Underestimation of Greenhouse Gas Emissions
National: Drew Shindell, IPCC Chair; Veerabhadran Ramanathan, observations and modeling of Short-lived Climate Pollutants (SLCPs)
